Predicting Energy Peaks to Save Costs and Advance Campus Sustainability

The following article is written by Serena Kim, assistant professor in the School of Public and International Affairs, and Shaniya Woolridge, graduate student in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences.

Addressing Peak Energy Demand

NC State’s Centennial Campus is moving forward in sustainability with a new project designed to reduce peak electricity demand. Peak demand charges, which are based on the highest 15-minute interval of power used each month, account for approximately 40% of the Centennial Campus electricity bill. The high demand resulting in these costs also contributes to the campus’s carbon footprint by drawing on the grid during periods of greatest stress.

Cutting Costs and Carbon at the Same Time

The project focuses on a forecasting and alert system that merges energy, weather and campus operations data to predict when peaks are likely to occur. Facilities staff will receive day-ahead notifications, allowing them to adjust HVAC schedules, shift or reduce equipment use, or dispatch battery/thermal energy storage systems before a peak hits. By embedding predictive analytics into daily operations, the system helps avoid costly demand spikes while reinforcing NC State’s sustainability goals.

Even modest reductions can have meaningful impacts. Shedding a portion of campus activity outside of peak periods lowers costs and reduces the carbon intensity of electricity use. The project also shows how forecasting can work in combination with existing peak shaving assets on campus such as the thermal energy storage system, the combustion turbine generator, the steam turbine generator, rooftop solar, batteries and building automation controls as well as targeted behavioral strategies. By testing these combined approaches in real campus settings, Centennial Campus becomes a proving ground for solutions that can be scaled well beyond NC State.

From Vision to Launch

The new initiative began with the vision of Allen Boyette, assistant vice chancellor for operations and maintenance, who emphasized the importance of finding practical ways to curb peak energy demand while strengthening campus sustainability. With the support of Damian Lallathin, director of Energy Management, and Raheem Ariwoola, energy engineer, the project moved quickly from concept to implementation.

Launched in May 2025, the research and development is led by Serena Kim, assistant professor of the School of Public and International Affairs, and Bowen Xu, assistant professor in the Department of Computer Science, with students contributing to data analysis, AI model development, prototyping and testing the software system. The project underscores NC State’s commitment to transforming Centennial Campus into a living laboratory for innovative solutions that drive both interdisciplinary research and sustainability.

For more information or to get involved with energy projects on campus, contact NC State Energy Management at save_energy@ncsu.edu.